China and the World
Copyright Jack Mixner. 7134 449 1040. www.mixnerstrategy.com
For centuries and centuries, China barely recognized the existence of anyone outside its boundaries, much less responded to them.
Times have changed, China along with them. The real question is, "What about the future?"
Six key points (Gelber, 427-442):
- Demographics.
- How will 'one child' play out in the end?
- What about the real interest in having sons?
- Immigration is huge in much of the world. What role will it play in China?
- Governance.
- Tiananmen Square spoke loudly to the reality in China; however, things continue to evolve.
- The Party is not going away. How will it evolve, especially in a wired and televised world.
- Economics.
- Entrepreneurism is almost in the Chinese genes. The government sparked growth with all sorts of incentives. Many have not flowed nation-wide. How will that play out?
- Will growth continue at break-neck speeds? Will investor capital continue to flow into China?
- China's role in science and technology.
- Will over-capacity and banking scandals bog things down?
- Borderland relations.
- China doesn't want refugees from Korea, or a war, for that matter.
- It seems able to postpone resolving the Taiwan issue.
- Either could prove incendiary. India enters the equation as well, as does Russia.
- China's place in the global balance of power.
- Accommodation with the West seems likely to continue, assuming "reasonable good sense" (Gelber 439) on both sides.
China is now a participant in the world economy. Let's hope things stay positive, long-term.
Reference
Gelber, Harry G. The Dragon and the Foreign Devils. China and the World, 100 B.C. to the Present. Walker & Company. New York. 2007.