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October 06, 2011

Industrial Policy Follows Stimulative Policy

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References

The time for stimulatory economic policy is apparently past.

Two points of view to now consider (Economics Focus):

  • Either government intervention (with its attendant inefficiency breeding, reduced competition, lobbying encouragement and government supported production facilities producing products nobody wants) is past, or
  • Now may be the time to consider industrial policy.

Competent industrial policy requires disinterested, benevolent policymakers who do it well (Economics Focus, 84). Key points:

  • Governments should avoid open-ended incentives that in time entrench incumbents and raise consumer prices.
  • Like patents, ... industrial policies should eventually expire.
  • What matters is not whether governments can pick winners - they cannot - but whether thay have the good sense to let losers fall by the wayside.

References

Economics Focus. Tinker, tailor. The Economist. 1 October 2011. 84. http://www.economist.com/node/21530958

Acemoglu, Daron, Phillipe Aghion, Leonardo Burszityn and David Hemous. The Environment and Directed Technical Change. The American Economic Review. http://econ-www.mit.edu/files/6515  

Aghion, P. M. Dewatripont, L. Du, A. Harrison & P. Legros. Industrial Policy and Competition. 28 June 2011. http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/aghion/files/Industrial%20Policy.pdf

Rodrik, Dani. The Return of Industrial Policy. Project Syndicate. 12 April 2010. http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rodrik42/English

August 17, 2011

Water Strategy

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In 1976, Orange County installed the first reverse osmosis treatment plant to purify household wastewater to drinking-water standards (Prud'Homme, 109). That means it had to convince the populace that this was a good idea. They were, after all, early adopters of a new technology. There was a very specific need, not drinking water, but water to stop the migration of salt water into the very plentiful (but receding) Orange County aquifer. That story, told repeatedly, became the basis for a very strategic adoption of treated sewer water into the Orange County drinking water system. Even today, the treated water is still injected into the ground, but now it has a different use. Transported inland more than ten miles, the water is injected into the aquifer, the same aquifer from which many Orange County communities pump their drinking water. An interesting thing happened. The mainstream populace didn't object to what was going on. The water didn't hurt anyone when it was used as a salt water barrier. Therefore, we all assumed, it wouldn't hurt anyone when it flowed through the aquifer to local pumps. It'll be a while, I predict, before we are ready to accept the treated water flowing straight from the treatment facility into the drinking water system. It's pure and healthy. The adoption cycle will take some more time before everyone accepts that purity. We're no longer as squeamish as we once were. We do, however, have a way to go before we totally accept this new technology in Orange County.

Interesting side note: other communities are still having this battle, some of them not so far away from Orange County. Their alternative strategies work just as well as Orange County's - they just cost a whole lot more in money, and resources.

Reference

Prud'Homme, Alex. The Ripple Effect. The fate of freshwate in the twenty-first century. Scribner. 2011.

August 07, 2011

The Opportunity That Is China

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An interpretation in the New York Times (Barboza) of the Chinese announcement taking the U.S. to task for its "addiction to debts" says that, in a way, because other alternative bond sources don't really exist, the Chinese are stuck with investing in U.S. treasuries. Having financed the import boom in America, the Chinese are watching anxiously as U.S. bonds are down-graded.

Kissinger, while not responding to current events in On China, makes a different case, namely, that the U.S. and China have a forty-year-old opportunity to grow closer. While initially, what with Korea and to a lesser extent, Viet Nam, China seemed an aggressor uninterested in engaging the U.S., it has had the opportunity since ping pong diplomacy and the Nixon visit to re-consider our relations, and has, basically, constructively engaged in a non-adversarial relationship while making the decision to grow economically in an environment where it needed to learn a lot in order to catch up. The key is that during the eighties and early nineties, China engaged and grew, admitting and acting upon needs which Mao et al never would have admitted. The inner-looking China looked outside for guidance and training, and leveraged the energy and creativity of its populace to grow more quickly than the world had ever seen before.

So, we have two points of view. The Chinese announcement that the U.S. had better get its house in order, and Kissinger's longer view that China and the U.S. have an opportunity to "not shake the world, but build it" (Kissinger, 530). Yes, the U.S. needs to get its house in order. However, it can do that most constructively (if we buy Kissinger's analysis) by working with China for a better world, not in opposition to it.

Stepping back a bit, some interesting things are happening to the Sino-American relationship. Many of Apple Computer's hugely successful products are manufactured in China, some by Foxconn, a Chinese company of interest lately because of suicides in its workforce, and, alternatively, its rapid growth. Last week, Foxconn made an announcement (The Economist, 58) that it was going to "hire" one million robots to replace parts of its workforce. This is a good thing for productivity and, perhaps, a bad thing because almost necessarily, prices will rise. Apple and Foxconn obviously care. But so should we. Rising costs signal an opportunity for U.S. companies to bring tech manufacturing out from China, perhaps all the way to the U.S.

The Chinese relationship is a sympathetic one. The best course is for the U.S. and China to continue down the path of mutual understanding (maybe an improperly used Cold War term), respect, and dialog recognizing the fact that unless the U.S. and China continue to work together, both will ruin a strong opportunity.

Reference

Barboza, David. China Tells U.S. It Must 'Cure Its Addiction to Debt'. New York Times. 6 Aug 2011. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/07/business/global/china-a-big-creditor-says-us-has-only-itself-to-blame.html?src=me&ref=business

Kissinger, Henry. On China. The Penguin Press. 2011.

Economist. Robots Don't Complain. 6 August 2011. 58.

August 01, 2011

Bottom of the Pyramid - Profits Before Gifts

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Prahalad's now classic book on economic development strategy in India is well-known. It details a whole series of steps to take to help folks at the bottom of the pyramid help themselves up. Then it gives successful case studies from around the world that show that people, given tools and incentives, are very happy to help themselves succeed. Here are some words on governance that are applicable lots of places (Prahalad, 98):

The Bank of Madura initiated a model of village development in southern India that has shown great promise. It was based on three assumptions:

  1. Microsavings must precede microlending. Bottom of the Pyramid (BOP) consumers must learn to save, and there were no institutions to support microsavings.
  2. BOP consumers must start trusting themselves. They must be actively involved in solving their problems. Outside help (financial and other) can go only so far. The village must break its cycle of dependency built by more than 40 years of subsidies and government handouts, NGO interventions, and the like. Private-sector development (in this case, banking based on commercial principles) and subsidies do not mix.
  3. There is no dearth of latent leaders in the villages. Given the opportunity, they will emerge and will influence the start of a transparent and commercially viable system. This group will then become the custodians of transaction governance instead of lawyers or the local slum lords.

 Since Orange County is a medical device haven, I was enticed by the story of Jaipur Foot (Prahalad, 275). We have at least on major prosthetic manufacturer in town. Their devices cost thousands of dollars and are, indeed, wonderful. Jaipur Foot's devices are themselves wonderful. Wonder comes not only from their many satisfied customers who appear at the Jaipur Foot infirmary to leave, only days later (if not the next day) with a new foot. Wonder comes also from the price. Early on, Jaipur provided durable and very useful limbs for thirty dollars or so. The Orange County manufacturer's costs are significantly higher, being somewhere more than $8 thousand all the way up to $30 thousand. I'm not even going to do the math. This is wonderment.

When you take the time to consider the needs of your customer, to put them first, there are solutions that remain a wonder long after the sale. Prahalad's book is chock full of them.

Reference

Prahalad, C. K. The Fortune at the Bottom of the Pyramid: Eradicating Poverty Through Profits. Pearson Education. 2010.

May 31, 2011

Jump-Starting Innovation

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Two ideas (Harford, Flipping) to make innovation happen faster (maybe, on a national basis): 1. Reward innovation with big contests, 2. Research funders set aside a portion of their funds for high risk ventures.

Seemingly, these are contrarian ideas. Spend more money - more risky money - on unproven ideas. Good idea? The statistics say yes. The X Prize spurred private developments in space. Netflix paid $1 million to independent developers who came up with the perfect way to offer folks movies they'd be interested in.

The Howard Hughes Medical Institute and the NIH are more likely to fund crazy ideas (Harford, Positive).

Reference

Harford, Tim. Flipping the Switch: We're running out of bright ideas. Here's how to fire up the innovation machine. Wired. June 2011. 26-27.

Harford, Tim. Positive Black Swans. http://www.slate.com/id/2293699/pagenum/all/#p2

Harford, Tim. Why Success Always Starts With Failure. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. 2011

March 27, 2011

Rewilding

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Sometime around eight hundred years ago, man first arrived on the Hawaiian islands. While there is some question about what precisely happened next, it is clear that man's arrival was a very bad thing for the native flora and fauna. There were mass extinctions, some of them occuring very early in man's time on the islands, some of them later.

A scientist, David Burney, arrived to examine the Hawaiian islands in recent history. He had experience in using archelogical techniques, combined with advanced dating techniques and extensive experience in identifying extinct species of animals from their fossilized bones, and plants from their fossilized pollen. His biggest task was to locate a place on the islands with undisturbed soil stratas that would allow him to examine them to identify past species while at the same time carefully documenting the dates that plants and animals went extinct.

Now, let's combine the two data sets of extinction and identification into a new strategy for replacing lost ecologies. Digging in a relatively undisturbed cave on Kaua'i, Burney was able to place extinctions on a time-line and show a rough - exact really - correlation between the presense of first, initial explorers from other Pacific islands, and second, the first arrival of Western explorers. Now for the interesting part: Burney suggests that, using his data, he can suggest what plants to re-establish in Hawaii to recreate or closely simulate the environment before man arrived, including plants and animals. In fact, working with various agencies and land-holders on the island, he has begun work on re-introducing extinct species.

Obviously, there is a question of why this is important. It ends up that the older, now extinct, plants and animals are more sustainable. Keeping the gene pool dense with all the different species is easier to do in native habitats rather than in the green house. We can stop extinctions and environmental degradation, and provide a map for a future of newly introduced plants similar to extinct plants that will eventually be ecologically lush.

Reintroduction of extinct species into locales they were driven from is a possibility for large portions of the western United States because (and this is where it becomes interesting) some landholder like Ted Turner (who owns millions of wester US acres) wants to return his land to a "pre-man" state, or certainly, pre-whiteman state of ecological soundness and diversity. Using the methods of identification using archeology, etc. Turner is able to, with great assuredness, recreate sustainable environments soundly based on real historical data.

Re-wilding. A new word to add to the sustainability wars just kicking off because of global warming and the future necessity of replacing our oil-based energy economy with sustainable local "substitutes".

Reference

Burney, David A. Back to the Future in the Caves of Kaua'i. A Scientist's Adventures in the Dark. Yale University Press. 2010.

August 04, 2010

American Crossroads

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Most people think the American revolution occured in the 1770s and 1780s. A case could be made that a second American revolution occured in the 1890s or thereabouts (Turner, 244-246):

  • ...there is the exhaustion of the supply of free land and the closing of the movement of Western advance as an effective factor in American development.
  • ...there has been a concentration of capital in the control of fundemental industries as to make a new epoch in the economic development of the United States.
  • ...the expansion of the United States politically and commercially into lands beyond the seas.
  • ...the political parties of the United States now tend to divide on issues that involve the question of Socialism. This shows ...the birth of new political ideas, the reformation of the lines of political conflict.

This was only slightly more than a century ago.

On 22 July, Congress ceased discussions of a carbon cap (Pooley, 6). Without direct federal investment, "renewable energy is withering" (Pooley, 7). China, on the other hand, has announced that is is beginning an experiment in carbon trading, while wind power is "well ahead of schedule" (Pooley, 7). Worst of all, VC funds - American VC funds - aren't being invested in America. They are flowing instead to Green projects in China (Pooley, 7).

America was at the beginning of growth in the 1770s. It was again at the beginning of growth in the 1890s. We have to decide - now - whether we are at the beginning of growth in the the 2010s. I use Green as an example. Maybe it's not as bad as it seems. Consider, however, what America was like in the 1770s and the 1890s. Contrast it with today. One way to look at this is to say, "On, no, we have a problem!" The alternative is to say, "Wow, we have an opportunity!" Let's vote for the second, especially as we enter the next planning cycle for each of our companies. What a time it is. Opportunity scanning is a crucial first step. Where to start? Normally, maybe you'd all just meet in a room with a flipchart, do a quick scan, and take some actions. I suggest an alternative method (Palermo, 5-8):

  • Talk to customers, first. Ask them, "Are you receiving value?" and "Does the product perform as you expected?"
  • Talk to employees. They hold you back, maybe. Or, they know where to go. Ask them, "Would you recommend us as a place to work - to your best friend?" You can not do it alone. Your employees are key to implementation.
  • Finally, consider your financial performance. Is doing what you are currently doing going to get you where you want to go? Crucially, are you investing in your future, or just spending your equity?

America has been through at least two revolutions, so far. This could - maybe, should - be the third.  

References

Palermo, Richard C., Sr. Do the Right Things...Right. It Is That Simple. A Step-by-Step Guide to World-Class Performance. The Strategic Triangle, Inc. 2003.

Pooley, Eric. America Sits Out the Race. Bloomberg Businessweek. 2-8 August 2010. 6. http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_32/b4190006428519.htm

Turner, Frederick Jackson. The Frontier in American History. Robert E. Krieger Publishing Company. 1920. Reprinted 1976.

March 23, 2010

Frenzies: the Bad and the Not-So-Bad

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The dot-com frenzy was bad, no question. The NASDAQ fell, what, eighty percent? The Dow fell a lot too. Recovery took years. The frenzy was an investment bubble without much debt on the table. It was all equities. The initial public offering market hasn't really recovered yet. There was a recession yes, but not like this one.  

What makes this recession different (Lowenstein, 26)? House prices doubled, but that was nothing like the dot-com growth in stock values. However, and there is a big however, there was one big difference. The dot-com bust relied on the growth of stock values and their ultimate bust. The mortgage debacle was based upon risk alright, but not consumer risk. It was lender risk. Lenders figured out how to risk more and more money on loans that didn't ever pencil out. There's a ratio you want to watch, the ratio of capital a bank has to the amount of loans a bank has. Have to many loans with no capital and you are going to have a problem. Something like the Great Recession. Banks were allowed to carry too many loans without enough equity to balance them and the banks got caught. Now here is the good part: it will happen again, guaranteed, unless the regulators do something. All the derivatives allowed the banks to hide loans and make their ratios look far better than they were. So, regulators need to figure out how to measure debt ratios at banks and keep the banks from increasing their leverage too much ever again. That's the simple solution: reduce risk in lenders by making them play by more conservative rules. That's the solution. There's an ugly word here, however, and even moderate Libertarians will watch carefully. That word is regulation. Supposedly, capitalism is self-regulating. Well, this time around, we proved that capitalists make errors. Our job is to make sure they don't make the leverage mistake again.

Reference

Lowenstein, Roger. First, Slap Limits on Bank Leverage. The fight over a financial consumer protection agency misses the point. What fueled the crisis was bank debt. Bloomberg BusinessWeek. 22 and 29 March 2010. 26. http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_12/b4171026575784.htm

March 22, 2010

Fostering Growth

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Buried in a book (Micklethwait, 144-146) on the history of the corporation is a very good description of what makes Silicon Valley - and now the world tech community - so strong and resilient. Micklethwait identified four key points:

Silicon Valley products were miniaturized with ever more computing power. The introduction of the Internet reduced transaction costs across the economy.

Silicon Valley corporations relied on creative destruction. Some failed, but out of them came new companies. Shockley begot Fairchild begot Intel. Those new company's leaped into profitability: they were gazelles. The American mores of failure toleration, treachery acceptance and attitude were clear. They dumped ties and suits - and last names - even back in the fifties.

The Silicon Valley model has spurred looser hierarchies all over the world. More and more economies rely on gazelle firms. Alliances, partnerships, joint ventures, and franchises are universal.

Finally, all efforts to create state companies are failing. States are concentrating on fostering entrepreneural clusters with their fierce competitors.

Reference

Micklethwait, John and Adrian Wooldridge. The Company. A Short History of a Revolutionary Idea. A Modern Library Chronicles Book. The Modern Library. 2003.

December 15, 2009

LA Region Creative Economy

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Interesting factoids thanks to the Otis College report on the Creative Economy (Otis):

  • Employment in direct jobs the creative industry is 342,300 with 858,500 total jobs in LA County; 44,500 direct creative jobs in OC with total creative jobs in OC at 92,500 (Otis, 7)
  • Employment in creative jobs is "sideways" since 2003 (Otis, 10).
  • Sub-industries (my word) include fashion, toys, digital media, product and industrial design, architecture and interior design, communication arts, art galleries, fine and performing arts, furniture and home furnishings, entertainment (Otis, 15-24).
  • Overall trends in creative economy employment are minus 2.3% through 2013 (Otis, 24).
  • LA County has eighteen universities, colleges, trade and technical schools with degree programs in creative programs; Orange County has three (Otis, 30).

Florida (reference in Mixner) posits that the core - the measure - of an economy is its level of creativity. The implication is that the emphasis of workforce preparedness should include not only science, technology, engineering and math, but also creativity. If in fact creativity numbers are in decline in the LA region, we've got something more to consider in workforce planning.

Mixner, Jack Watching Your Best People Leave Town. 12 December 2009.  http://mixnerstrategy.com/blog/2009/12/watching_your_best_people_leav.html

Otis College of Art and Design with Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation, Economic Information & Research Department. Report on The Creative Economy of the Los Angeles Region. November 2009. http://www.otis.edu/about/creative_economy_report_2008.html

The Greening of Orange County

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Interesting factoids about the growth of the Green economy in California, thanks to Next 10:

  • There are 18 million jobs in California. 159 thousand are in green technologies, 52 thousand in biotech, 228 thousand in software (Next 10, 2).
  • The GDP of California is $1.8 trillion with a 2.8% growth rate.
  • The population of California is 38 million, with a 1.5% growth rate.
  • There is a green value chain, from R&D, through manufacturers, suppliers and service providers. The bulk of the employment is in service providers (Next 10, 15) .
  • Orange County employment in green jobs has grown fifty percent since 1995; the highest growth rate is eighty-seven percent in Sacramento (next 10, 21).
  • Energy generation jobs in OC have grown 176%; highest is 200% in Central Coast region (Next 10, 23).
  • Energy efficiency jobs have grown seventy eight percent in OC; highest is 194% in Sierra region.
  • Green transportation jobs have grown 1,875% in OC; highest growth is 2,655% in San Diego region (Next 10, 27).

These are basically percentage reports. Employment is up. This clearly is a industry. Growth at 2.4% trails the general economy, interestingly. Investments could be considered in sectors with faster growth rates, like transportation (although you'd want to examine the real growth rates, as well).

Next 10 with Collaborative Economics. Many Shades of Green. Diversity and Distribution of California's Green Jobs. Next 10. 2009. http://www.next10.org/next10/publications/green_jobs.html

August 06, 2009

Grading Green - and Health Care - Initiatives

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There are mumblings (or maybe more than that, maybe real protests) around the country against two issues that are wending their way through Congress (Rucker). The mumblings focus on issues that will be crucial to all of us over the next years, health care and environmental topics like green initiatives. Broadly, the mumblings say, "I'm not going to let the government tell me how I am going to live my life." For health care, the quote might be, "I'm not reducing my caloric intake just because you tell me it's good for me," or "Don't restrict my access to certain procedures because " for instance "I smoke." For green initiatives, the quote might be, "The global warming science isn't proven, so don't tell me what kind of car to drive (Friedman, 212-213), or investments to make (Milloy, 162)." Pretty volatile issues, issues I'd normally stay away from. Entrepreneurs, however, would spend good time if they considered the ramifications of the discussions on opportunities in the health care and green sectors.

Pretty preposterous ideas come to mind. Health care for smokers is one. Investment pools for non-green companies is another, something Milloy is addressing with his Free Enterprise Action Fund (Milloy, 162). Contrarian thoughts, certainly. Possibilities? Maybe.

Friedman, Thomas L. Hot, Flat, and Crowded. Why we need a green revolution - and how it can renew America. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. 2008. 

Milloy, Steve. Green Hell. How Environmentalists Plan to Control Life and What You Can Do to Stop Them. Regnery Publishing, Inc. 2009.

Rucker, Philip and Dan Eggen. Rowdy protests at health forums. The Washington Post. 6 August 2009. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/text/2009607024_townhall06.html

August 04, 2009

Economic Indicators Reports

1+714.673.8578     www.mixnerstrategy.com

Even Nobel prize winners can get no respect. The team that won the Nobel along with Vice President Al Gore some two years ago is catching flack. It seems their reports are nice, but they don't give us enough direction. Reports, good. Results, not so good. The world industrial powers haven't cut back the pollution that leads to global warming significantly. The reports must be flawed if no one is listening. That's the message we are getting (Revkin).

We have been getting the same grades on Orange County reports, one on workforce and the other on the community as a whole (County of Orange). We're hearing "Too many numbers, not enough action."

Now, having observed close-hand how tough it is to get things right in a meaningful fashion, perhaps we expect too much from reports like this. In my heart, however, I agree with the weak grades. In business we call it analysis paralysis. Too much information, not enough action taking.

When Carlos Ghosn arrived at the failing Nissan, the central management team was spending sixty-five percent of their time planning and only thirty-five percent implementing. Ghosn fixed that. Within months, they were up to ninety-five percent action (Magee, 102).

When you focus on action, a funny thing happens. The reports get shorter. People can remember what their supposed to do. And - wonderfully - they actually take action. Results follow. Try it with your team.

Magee, David. Turnaround: How Carlos Ghosn Rescued Nissan. HarperCollins. 2003. [ Referenced in: http://mixnerstrategy.com/blog/2006/08/on_strategy_too_much_practice.html ]

Orange, County of. Workforce Indicators Report. 2008-2009. http://egov.ocgov.com/vgnfiles/ocgov/Community%20Investment/Docs/OCWIB/Portals/Workforce_Indicators_Report_2008.pdf

Orange, County of. Community Indicators Report. 2008-2009. http://egov.ocgov.com/vgnfiles/ocgov/Community%20Investment/Docs/OCWIB/Portals/Community_Indicators_Report_2008.pdf

Revkin, Andrew C. Nobel Halo Fades Fast for Climate Change Panel. New York Tiimes. 4 August 2009. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/04/science/earth/04clima.html?_r=1&hpw

June 12, 2009

Singapore Invests: Count the Ways

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Singapore sees signs that things are turning around. Here's a simple list of activities they are supporting to support GDP (Einhorn):

  1. $14 billion "resilience package"
  2. Corporate tax cuts
  3. Subsidies to companies that don't lay off workers
  4. 90% refunds for employee training
  5. Three new universities, on of which is linked to MIT
  6. Nissan and Renault will test electric cars in Singapore
  7. $300 million loan to Micron Technology to upgrade
  8. Encouraging international Big Pharma to locate research centers in its biotech park.

The results? They believe the recession may be easing in Singapore.

Einhorn, Bruce. Singapore Stirs but exports are falling. BusinessWeek. 8 June 2009. 38.

June 08, 2009

Overcoming Extremist Employees

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First, three definitions and processes to lay out the playing field:

Extremism.     Extremism is a term used to describe the actions or ideologies of individuals or groups outside the perceived political center of a society; or otherwise claimed to violate common moral standards. The term is invariably, or almost invariably, used pejoratively. Extremism is usually contrasted with moderation, and extremists with moderates.  (Wikipedia, extremism).

People first.     The executives who ignited the transformation from good to great did not first figure out where to drive the bus and then get people to take it there. No, they first got the right people on the bus (and the wrong people off the bus) and then figured out where to drive it (Collins, 41).

Checks and balances from extremism.     ...take a fresh look at other institutions that either promote or combat self-insulation. ... require bipartisan membership. ...confront conspiracy theories with ... credible counter-arguments. In the private sector, economic disasters, for individuals and large groups, are often a product of conversations among like-minded people, in which some investment or project seems to be a sure winner (Cass, 158-159).

Let's assume we accept the notion that a dictatorial leadership that decides the direction of a company isn't likely to get the results it needs. Collins suggests getting the right people on board first and moving the wrong people on to greener pastures. A tendency, if you don't think about what you are doing, is to hire people who think like you do. Not a good idea. Lincoln hired his, basically, enemies to join his Cabinet. Obama is doing the same thing, or so it appears. They are fostering dissent in order to make sure decisions are based not upon groups composed of similar individuals (extremists, for whatever ideology, if you think about it) but on groups of dissimilar individuals who argue disparate points of view before any agreement is reached. That's your task. Hire individuals who think independently. Then craft your strategy. Don't dictate it. Consider the extreme views as part of the process. The decision you finally reach is stronger as a result.

Collins, Jim. Good to Great. Harper Business. 2001. 

Sunstein, Cass R. Going to Extremes. How Like Minds Unite and Divide. Oxford University Press. 2009.

June 07, 2009

The Depression - of 1837

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I grew up in New Jersey. Not the New Jersey you are thinking about with the belching pollution from the refineries along the New Jersey Turnpike. No, I grew up in the country of North Jersey, just below the Kittatenny Ridge. We liked to go up on the Appalachian Trail on Sundays to hike along in solitude. We knew to be careful where we walked, however. The woods were full of old stone walls and foundations that could be unsafe to the uninitiated. Even more unsafe were all the old, abandoned wells that spotted the back country. You didn't want to fall in an abandoned well, especially if you were all by yourself. The New Jersey I grew in looked like it was all original growth that had been there forever. Actually, that wasn't the case. New Jersey had been fully populated during Colonial times, the hills denuded, and farms created even on the steeper slopes. The industry of the times, the farms didn't retreat until the 1830s and 40s. Sullivan (Sullivan, 125) makes the case that the population of the east evacuated because of economic conditions. The completion of the Erie Canal and the beginning of the railroad era allowed for farming in the "Northwest," in the valleys of western New York and Ohio and their environs. The land was cheaper, flatter, less rocky, and more fertile. Crops were more profitable, and, because of the new railroads and canals, cheap to bring to market. This disrupted the farming communities along the East Coast. Greeley's classic "Go West young man" wasn't really a romantic call to wander. Rather, it was a wholly realistic call to survive starvation; you couldn't make a living in the east. You had to go west to find your fortune. It wasn't a cool thing to do, it was survival (Sullivan, 128). The Grapes of Wrath was about the Depression. Thoreau's writings about Walden were about the depression of 1837. He hoped to survive not by the materialism of industrial farming and manufacturing communities but were a call to survive using a simpler life style like that that had existed before the failure of eastern communities. The interesting parallels between the depressions of the 1930s and the 1830s and 40s point to solutions for today. While we probably won't end up calling our time a depression (I'm hearing Great Recession ocsasionally) the suggestions for success make sense. Thoreau actually was an industrialist himself. His family manufactured pencils and were widely recognized for their quality. He innovated, especially during the period when German imports largely supplanted American pencil manufacturers and ended up abandoning pencils for graphite manufacturing. His powdered lead became a staple of a new industry that used lead in a mechanical process that was a precursor to Xerox processes a century later.

Sullivan, Robert. The Thoreau You Didn't Know. What the Prophet of Environmentalis Really Meant. Collins. 2009.

December 02, 2008

Savannah and Prince Rupert Improve Their Ports - At the Wrong Time

1+714.673.8578.     www.mixnerstrategy.com

It is easy to pick on economic development officers, especially in a down economy.

Savannah built 4 million square feet of storage space to house a projected boom in container freight through its port (Uchitelle); its shipments have "flattened".

The Port of Prince Rupert wanted to deliver 250,000 forty foot containers through the Port in 2008; its at about 50,000 (Penner).

Both these ports invested heavily in capacity hoping the boon in in-bound containers, mainly from Asia, would continue. Things haven't worked out that way.

The evolution of the inter-continental container freight business has caused many ports to invest in facility to handle the freight. Now, freight can be a good business, especially in an up market. This is a down market.

What's the message?

We're talking about capacity utilization in a capital intense, cyclic, businesses. Ports and container ships and all the things that go with them like trains and trucks, cost a lot of money. Business, including import/export business, is cyclical. If you are going to invest in your capital intense business, make sure your projections are accurate. Otherwise, under-utilization will be a big problem.

Prince Rupert seems happy with their volume even though it is not meeting expectations. That works, but only up to a point. Most of their improvements were probably paid for with some sort of bond. The next time they go to market with a new round of bond financing, investors are likely to have a closer look. Maybe they won't be interested. Everyone does a cost/benefit analysis. The trick is to make sure your projections are accurate. How to do that?

CEOs need to push harder. When presented with a projection, drill down to verify that the projections have customers attached to them. "We'll get ten percent growth next year" isn't good enough. Tell which customers are all ready on board and which ones are close before you approve that expansion.

These ports didn't I'll bet, and they are going to pay the price for the omission. If you are going to speculate, make sure you have deep pockets. My bet is, cheery faces aside, both Prince Rupert and Savannah both wish they had examined their investments more closely.

References

Penner, Derrick. Prince Rupert Optimistic. Vancouver Sun. 5 November 2008. http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/business/story.html?id=150a085a-3f89-4b57-b0b9-ad2cc30bf75b

Uchitelle, Louis. When the Downturn Sailed Into Savannah.New York Times. 30 November 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/30/business/economy/30econ.html?_r=1&hp

November 29, 2008

I Missed Something During the Crisis

1+714.673.8578.     www.mixnerstrategy.com

Paul Krugman just won the Nobel for economics. He took a job as a commentator at the New York Times some time ago. When he took the job, he was concerned that it might ruin his changes at winning the Nobel. Two things happened: he became an outspoken critic of the current administration and he won the Nobel (Raines, 70).

Most recently, Krugman took on U. S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson. Paulson wanted to bail out the banks by buying their bad debt. Krugman said not to buy debt, but to buy the bank's stock to give them added liquidity, the action Paulson ultimately received permission from Congress to do.

An interesting factoid: Paulson changed his mind. Early on, he wanted to buy stocks in failing banks. Then, he changed his mind. Now, he wanted to buy debt. Finally, with Krugman's input, and a whole lot of other folks, he went back to buying stock.

Personally, I got all this wrong. On the Monday when the first vote occurred, I was incensed that some of our local legislators voted against the initial Paulson request. Of course, we all lost a lot of money that day in the market, but that doesn't mean I was any less wrong. When they finally voted to invest in the markets with the $700 billion bailout, the money went to buy stock, not bad debts.

Luckily, Krugman got his way. Yep, we all lost some money. Luckily, the delay took us down the right path.

Strategy works the same way, sometimes. Taking your time to make important decisions does make sense. Asking advice - and actually listening to it - also makes sense.

I'm glad the Congress took the time to pause and re-consider. It worked out better that way.

Reference

Raines, Howell. Don't Believe the Hype. The press bought into the $700 billion bailout, hailing it as a necessity. Why so many got it wrong-and how Paul Krugman got it right. Portfolio. December 2008/January 2009. 69. http://www.portfolio.com/views/columns/media/2008/11/19/Paul-Krugmans-Bailout-Dissent

Call for (Gold) Standards?

1+714.673.8578.     www.mixnerstrategy.com

Back in business school, I had a gold standard professor who had us all convinced about the efficacy of an American gold standard, and its renewed need. That was quite a while ago.

The gold folks are back, only they don't talk about gold standards. They talk about "commodity" standards of some sort (O'Driscoll).

I'll let others debate about the need of the American currency to rest on a valuation based on a commodity like gold. O'Driscoll raises another interesting point:

The period between boom and bust cycles seems to be shortening. The next bust might occur during Obama's second term. Thus O'Driscoll's suggestion: Solidly force the value of the dollar to follow some commodity, thus preventing the formation of another boom/bust cycle, especially during Obama's watch.

O'Driscoll is trying to help Obama by pointing out that he needs to help a Democrat be elected in 2016. That seems like a long time from now.

Honestly, I don't want another bust. We're not over this one yet - I certainly don't want another one. Is going to a gold standard the way to go? I have no idea. I did learn something, however, and I hope I remember it:

The next bust may occur more quickly than we think.

Having a plan for it might be in order.

Reference

O'Driscoll, Gerald P., Jr. To Prevent Bubbles, Restrain the Fed. Obama would be a fool to trust his economy to the discretion of central bankers. Wall Street Journal. 17 November 2008. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122688652214032407.html

More from O'Driscoll:   Sweden's Model Clean-up

Sweden did things differently during the last banking crisis during the early nineties.

They stabilized their currency, reversed contractions in the gross national product, and reversed rising unemployment, by allowing some banks to fail, recapitalizing others and isolating bad debts (Cronin).

Japan attacked the same problems piecemeal and over a longer time.

Sweden's formula worked better.

We should have a look.

Reference

Cronin, Brenda. Sweden's Path, Not Japan's, Can Guide Cleanup. Wall Street Journal. 1 December 2008. A2. http://forexdaily.org.ru/Dow_Jones/page.htm?id=357115

Michael Porter on a National Economic Strategy

1+714.673.8578.     www.mixnerstrategy.com

Michael Porter is doing a little politicking. He sees a need for a national economic strategy, something that the US government hasn't tackled since Porter last participated in such a session - in 1983 (Porter, 42).

Strategists think in terms of strengths and weaknesses. Porter sees these strengths of American economics right now (Porter, 40):

  1. Environment for entrepreneurship
  2. The best science, technology and innovation "machine" in the world.
  3. The world's best institutions of higher learning.
  4. The world's strongest commitment to competition and free markets.
  5. Strategic policy is de-centralized across states and regions.
  6. Deepest and most efficient capital markets in the world.
  7. The willingness to restructure, take our losses, and move on.

That's a list every American should be proud of. That's the strengths. Now America's weaknesses according to Porter (Porter, 40-42):

  1. Belief in competition is waning
  2. Lack of competitive oversight and capital requirements is undermining American financial markets.
  3. No plan to improve access to American universities and colleges.
  4. Federal government is ignoring the strengths of regional economies evidenced by lack of support for individual clusters.
  5. Lack of a transitional safety net for Americans laid off and seeking new jobs resulting in an inefficient protectionism harming growth.
  6. Cost of doing business is too high. It is ignored by government. This includes health care and energy costs.
  7. Theft of intellectual property abroad and barriers for entry for services is tilting the world trading system against a knowledge-based economy.
  8. Citizens retiring today are better educated than the young people replacing them.

These are nice lists. Everybody gets it. So, what do we do?

Porter, of course, has a recommendation: form a President's Commission on Industrial Competitiveness. Make a plan that isn't reactionary. Make it visionary. Porter even recommends a couple strategies to start things off like consolidating local educational systems to generate efficiency and inequality. Up above we quoted a strength about local control of industrial clusters. That local converts, really, to a regional approach to clusters. Porter is recommending a regional approach to education. Combine districts. Equalize investment. Focus on results.

Michelle Rhee (Ripley, 36) is doing that in Washington DC schools. Some people, indeed, hate her. However, and here's the however, things are starting to change for the better. Schools are starting to change. Results are better since she arrived.

The message for a nationwide economic policy addressing long term strategic goals like education? It's not going to be easy. True leaders have to be involved.

Now is the time for a lot of things in America. Strategy is one of them.

References

Ripley, Amada. Can She Save Our Schools? Teachers hate her. Principals are scared of her. How Michelle Rhee became the most revolutionary-and polarizing-force in American education. TIME. 8 December 2008. 36. http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1862444,00.html 

Porter, Michael E. Why America Needs an Economic Strategy. BusinessWeek. 10 November 2008. http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_45/b4107038217112.htm

September 29, 2008

Perfect Storm: Lower Volume, Competiton From Abroad - and Now Air Quality

1+714.449.1040     www.mixnerstrategy.com

Containers - lots of them - come into the US through the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles. From a national point of view, the ports dominate west coast container shipments arriving from Asia.

Three key points:

  1. Shippers will go where the costs are cheapest and the down time to unload cargo in port is shortest (Levinson).
  2. Baja California is considering building a multi-billion dollar port south of Ensenada in Baja, California (Dickerson).
  3. Local authorities, the Air Quality Mangement District if I am not mistaken, are beginning to ban older, more-polluting trucks from servicing the harbors (to pick up incoming containers) because they are polluting the air (Roth).

Trumping the billion dollar investments in the LA ports by the Mexican government and its contractors to build an entirely new port without green restrictions is an iffy proposition in a down economy.

Less pollution and less traffic flowing through the LA region is perhaps the only positive outcome of a Baja port. In the short run, a successful bid to build a port in Baja is a disaster for the middle-class truck drivers servicing the LA ports.

What should the ports do?

One solution is to slowly wind down. That'll will take some time as the investments and infrastructure are huge and not easily - or sensibly, I know - abandoned.

The other solution is to turn the problem - regulation leading to higher costs - into a marketing opportunity.

  1. Make sure that every shipment through the ports is branded with the green port label.
  2. Make sure the shippers know about the green port label.
  3. Make sure ultimate consumers know about the green label, so much so that they demand green labeling on everything they buy.

The Ports have a choice:

  • Wind down now or sometime in the future or
  • View things as a very large marketing opportunity and act accordingly - now.

Given the large investments already sunk in the ports, I suggest the later.

One last thing about green labels: they only last so long before everyone else - the other harbors - have a green label of some sort of their own. While the label may work for a while the harbor's task is never done. After the green marketing effort, they need to address other things, like pay to employees (why do they always come first), technology to speed handling of containers, train and truck technologies, and other things to speed containers off the ships and on their way to consumers.

References

Dickerson, Marla. Mexico plans huge Baja port for U.S. trade. LA Times. 28 August 2008. http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mexico28-2008aug28,0,844963.story

Levinson, Marc. The Box. How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and World Economy Bigger. Princeton University Press. 2006.

Roth, Alex. Two California Ports Will Ban Older Trucks. Wall Street Journal 29 September. A32.

June 09, 2008

1800 Was the Tipping Point

714 449 1040.      www.mixnerstrategy.com

Before 1800, the human population relied the "contemporaneous energy of the sun, mainly in the forms of food, fuel wood, fibers, and a modest capture of wind and water power (Sachs, 64). The energy sources were limiting on population growth.

After 1800, the limits were "surmounted by coal, oil, and natural gas (Sachs, 64)." Population began to explode.

Since I like to watch technology companies grow, I was heartened to realize, thanks to Sachs, that one invention, particularly, allowed the human population to soar. In fact, it wasn't just any old invention.

The Haber-Bosch process for synthesizing nitrogen-based chemical fertilizers allowed for 80 percent of the growth of cereal production in the twentieth century (Sachs, 65-66). That one chemical reaction was basically responsible for much of the green revolution, or certainly the "food" revolution, across the world.

One invention. Huge growth.

Of course, there is another story that goes along with this wonderful one, that of the growth of global warming from the burning of fossil fuels and the expansion of arable land by burning existing forests and grasslands. Sachs summarizes the effects of the global warming that has paralleled the growth in technology based agriculture and manufacturing. The expected results are just a scary as we have been led to believe by the media, perhaps worse.

Since about 1800 or so technology has allowed the expansion of the global economy and population. The results of that expansion will "come home to roost" over the next century. My optimistic nature believes that there will be technological mitigations for the forecasted problems, but they remain to be seen. Sachs says mitigating these areas may be enough (Sachs, 97):

  • deforestation,
  • emissions from electricity production and automobiles,
  • clean up steel, cement, refineries and petrochemical production,
  • economize electricity and
  • replace furnaces with grid power.

That list looks more doable that the hand-wringing we are seeing in the press.

Reference

Sachs, Jeffrey D. Common Wealth. Economics for a Crowded Planet. The Penguin Press. New York. 2008.

March 27, 2008

Community Heroes

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The heroes in community growth are the folks who never get any credit. Their networks reach across the community, tying out-lying organizations together in unexpected webs.

Local CEOs and power brokers, you say? Nope.

They are bakery owners who hire immigrants - and show others how. They are cops who create a system to help victims of domestic violence. Maybe even, simply, a CEO who hosts meetings for the community in her boardroom (Stephenson, 33). 

Finding them is not easy, networking them less so, and harnessing them in common tasks is crucial to community growth. Three layers of people are important:
  • Hubs know many people and help in expanding the network.
  • Gatekeepers tie disparate groups who wouldn't dialog together.
  • Pulse-takers provide insight and perspective, and maybe, keep everyone honest.

Looking for a technology perspective on this? There is even a GIS component in the research used to map the location of leaders in a community.

Reference

Stephenson, Karen. The Community Network Solution. Strategy+Business. Winter 2007. 32. http://www.strategy-business.com/press/enewsarticle/enews022808?pg=0

March 17, 2008

Ranking Competitive Cities

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The Milken Institute's survey of best performing cities 2007 is out. Ranking of cities are based upon job growth 2001 and 0225, wage and salary growth in 2000 and 2004, short term job growth (march 06 versus March 2007), relative high tech GDP growth with 2001 and 2005 as a base-line, location quotients relative to job growth (Milken, 11).

Orange County didn't make the list. Riverside and Ontario, and Las Vegas made the list. I wonder which cities will make the list in 2008, what with all the economic changes across America.

Best Performing Cities 2007. Milken Institute. http://www.milkeninstitute.org/pdf/best_prfrmg_cities.pdf

Orange County 2008 Community Indicators. Children & Families Commission of Orange County. http://www.ocbc.org/Community%20Indicators%20Rpt%202008.pdf

February 15, 2008

An Empty Lake Meade

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There is a truly startling possibility that Lake Meade will empty within the next thirteen years given current population growth and snow levels in the Rockies.

Now is the time for planning, for our businesses, strategically, and our regions.

Barringer, Felicity. Lake Mead Could Be Within a Few Years of Going Dry, Study Finds. New York Times. 13 February 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/13/us/13mead.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1202922487-xAs3kSgt1/xlPpcIqdbjRw

August 13, 2007

China and the World

Copyright Jack Mixner.     7134 449 1040.     www.mixnerstrategy.com

For centuries and centuries, China barely recognized the existence of anyone outside its boundaries, much less responded to them.

Times have changed, China along with them. The real question is, "What about the future?"

Six key points (Gelber, 427-442):

  • Demographics.
    • How will 'one child' play out in the end?
    • What about the real interest in having sons?
    • Immigration is huge in much of the world. What role will it play in China?
  • Governance.
    • Tiananmen Square spoke loudly to the reality in China; however, things continue to evolve.
    • The Party is not going away. How will it evolve, especially in a wired and televised world.
  • Economics.
    • Entrepreneurism is almost in the Chinese genes. The government sparked growth with all sorts of incentives. Many have not flowed nation-wide. How will that play out?
    • Will growth continue at break-neck speeds? Will investor capital continue to flow into China?
  • China's role in science and technology.
    • Will over-capacity and banking scandals bog things down?
  • Borderland relations.
    • China doesn't want refugees from Korea, or a war, for that matter.
    • It seems able to postpone resolving the Taiwan issue.
    • Either could prove incendiary. India enters the equation as well, as does Russia.
  • China's place in the global balance of power.
    • Accommodation with the West seems likely to continue, assuming "reasonable good sense" (Gelber 439) on both sides.

China is now a participant in the world economy. Let's hope things stay positive, long-term.

Reference

Gelber, Harry G. The Dragon and the Foreign Devils. China and the World, 100 B.C. to the Present. Walker & Company. New York. 2007.

 

August 07, 2007

Industrialization in the LA Basin

Copyright Jack Mixner.     714 449 104.     www.mixnerstrategy.com

It's an interesting time to suggest "standing up to the environmental interests" (Kotkin, A13) what with global warming and restricted water supplies in the LA Basin, but Kotkin suggests just that. He also suggests re-directing masses of graduating high school students not to college but to skills training and blue collar jobs that pay pretty well.

His example? The San Pedro/Long Beach harbor. If we don't cut the harbor some slack environmentally, and train more workers for jobs in the harbor, there could be ramifications. The most interesting possibility? Moving the harbor to Baja where there are lots of people looking for jobs, and minimal environmental concerns.

Sounds far-fetched until you think about it. Wouldn't take that much to build a new harbor in Mexico. Then all they'd need are rail connections going all the way across the northern part of Mexico capable of tapping connections up to Chicago, the mid-west, and the east. All because we didn't take the time to train enough trades workers and figure out a way to resolve the environmental issues.

Every time I hear about the Baja plan, I smile and think it'll never happen. Some Southern California possibility thinking and problem solving might be in order before we actually do lose a very useful - and job generating - asset.

Reference

Kotkin, Joel. The Myth of Deindustrialization. Wall Street Journal. 6 August 2007. A13.

May 25, 2007

Medical Device Incubator

Copyright Jack Mixner.     714 449 1040.     www.mixnerstrategy.com

There is talk of the creation of a new incubator in Orange County focusing on medical device start-ups. 

Before the tech bust, there were multiple proposals for tech incubators in Orange County. A couple of years ago, the Digital Media Center in Santa Ana opened with federal and community college support. Now, a new incubator with University and business ties is on the drawing boards.

Our information says the location has been selected and interested parties are meeting about next steps.

Sounds interesting. Let's hope the next Allergan or AMO gets its start with the incubator's help. 

Reference

Stewart, Colin. Boosting medical device enterprises. Orange County Register. 10 May 2007. http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/news/local/irvine/businessnews/article_1690192.php

May 12, 2007

US Navy and Avalon Wildfire

Copyright Jack Mixner.     714 449 1040.     www.mixnerstrategy.com

By now, I imagine everyone has moved on from the Avalon wild fire story. For me, I will never forget the image in my mind of the US Navy delivering firetrucks to fight the fire - by hovercraft. This time, they got it right.

Photos:

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-catalinafire-pg,0,1155669.photogallery?coll=la-home-center&index=7 

May 09, 2007

Strategic Leaders in Regional Economic Development

Copyright Jack Mixner.     714 449 1040.     www.mixnerstrategy.com

Strategic leaders in Southern California regional economic development:

AeA. http://www.aeanet.org/ 

BIOCOM. http://www.biocom.org/ 

California State University Fullerton. http://business.fullerton.edu/Centers/iees/ResearchAsso/PuriAnil.htm

Chapman University. http://www.chapman.edu/argyros/asbecenters/acer/forecasting.asp

Life Science Industry Council.  http://www.elinc.org/

Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation. http://www.laedc.org/

Milken Institute. http://www.milkeninstitute.org/

OCTANe. http://www.octaneoc.org/

Orange County Business Council. www.ocbc.org 

Orange County Workforce Investment Board Economic and Workforce Intelligence Committee. http://www.ocwib.org/lmi/index.asp

Southern California Association of Governments.   http://www.scag.ca.gov/

April 22, 2007

Job Growth in Orange County

Copyright Jack Mixner.     714 449 1040.     www.mixnerstrategy.com

Manufacturing jobs in Orange County peaked at 231 thousand in 1990, with a smaller peak of 217 thousand in 2000. Right now, we're at approximately 183 thousand (Tolkoff, 4).

Strengths in aerospace and defense have evolved to those in medical devices and, if things go very right, in biosciences.

Orange County is lucky. Cluster diversity in Orange County leads the nation. When aerospace and defense tanked in the early 90s, computer software, pharmaceuticals and communications equipment grew.

Planning for the future necessitates a continual look at what we have and making them stronger. It also requires that we consider what we might have in the future and how to help clusters that aren't very strong yet continue to grow.

Manufacturing will likely continue to migrate to cheaper locations. R&D will stay if we continue to improve our universities and trade organizations, says Jack Kyser, chief economist for the LA Economic Development Corporation (Tolkoff, 4).

Within the county, manufacturing is largely centered in the north. The biggest losses in jobs have been concentrated there (23,143 jobs lost in north Orange County versus 5,815 lost in south County) (Tolkoff, 4). Replacing those lost jobs requires engagement of the north Orange County community in creating jobs, especially high tech, high multiplier jobs.

References

Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation. Mid-Year Updat: 2--6-2007 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook for California & Southern California including the National & International Setting.  http://www.laedc.org/reports/Forecast-2006-07.pdf 

Orange County 2007 Community Indicators. www.oc.ca.gov/ceocommunity.asp.

Tolkoff, Sarah. Manufacturing Jobs Steady, But Booms Likely Thing of Past. Orange County Business Journal. 16 April 2007. 4.

 

 

April 08, 2007

Infrastructure Bonds Point Out Weakness and Opportunity in Workforce Preparedness

Copyright Jack Mixner.    714 449 1040.     www.mixnerstrategy

I attended a one-day conference (CalEDGE) in Sacramento two weeks ago on helping businesses take advantage of the new bond funds for infrastructure construction approved by the electorate in California in 2006. Added together, it looks like there are $50 billion in funds available for construction over the next years.

Sounds great, especially if you own a construction company. One big problem: there aren't enough construction workers to construct all the infrastructure envisioned. It seems, in our focus on training technical workers, we forgot to train construction workers in the now very limited vocational programs we used to be so proud of.

Which brings us to the other problem. Since there aren't enough workers, the construction companies are ending up solo bidders on major work. LAUSD reported at the conference that one of their recent contracts was four times more expensive on a square foot basis than the preceding contract.

Will we be able to train enough construction workers in time? By the time they are ready to make a living at construction, will there be any funds left for construction, or will it have been frittered away on cost padding? Time will tell.

Reference

CalEDGE. http://www.californiaedgecampaign.org/

April 04, 2007

Selected Readings On Enterprise Communities and Empowerment Zones

Copyright Jack Mixner.     714 449 1040.     www.mixnerstrategy.com

Interim Assessment of the Empowerment Zones and Enterprise Communities (EZ/EC) Program. Content updated on 31 March 2005.  http://www.huduser.org/publications/econdev/ezec_execsum.html

...Findings that are consistent with little or no positive impact of the EZ/EC Initiative, or of the significant challenges faced by EZ/EC grantees, include the following:

...In the survey of zone businesses conducted in 2000, 65 percent of all EZ businesses reported no benefits from being in the EZ.

...Other Important Findings

...Zone programs have relied heavily on engagement with nonprofit and private partners. Creating and maintaining these partnerships has required significant time and effort. Building internal capacity within community organizations to undertake such long-term partnerships has been an area requiring special attention, but not many sites invested heavily in such efforts.

Section II-Enterprise Zones: Key Issues. Content updated 31 March 2005. http://www.huduser.org/publications/polleg/ez_bib/ez_bib2.html

Urban Enterprise Zones: Inner City Panacea or Supply-Side Showpiece?, ACCN-4565

Charles M. Haar et al.
1983, 41pp., CPD 755-R
Available from HUD USER, P.O. Box 23268, Washington, D.C. 20026-3268
Phone: 1-800-245-2691

...Federal funding should be made available for infrastructure improvement, a source of venture capital should be provided through tax policy, technical assistance should be provided to zone businesses, and zones that work with established neighborhood groups should be favored.

Impact of Enterprise Zone Tax Incentives on Selected Small Businesses, ACCN-4577

Coopers & Lybrand Economic Studies Group
1982, 58pp
Available from HUD USER, P.O. Box 23268, Washington, D.C. 20026-3268
Phone: 1-800-245-2691

Coopers & Lybrand Economic Studies Group1982, 58ppAvailable from HUD USER, P.O. Box 23268, Washington, D.C. 20026-3268Phone: 1-800-245-2691

...The tests indicated that the incentives have only a marginal impact on cash flow during a new firm's first years; thus the incentives would be of most value to established firms considering expansion.

State Enterprise Zone Programs: Variations in Structure and Coverage, ACCN-4589

Roy E. Green and Michael Brintnall 1986,37pp. Unpublished paper Available from HUD USER, P.O. Box 23268, Washington, D.C. 20026-3268
Phone: 1-800-245-2691

...The cumulative impact of enterprise zones can be judged on (1) the extent to which they emphasize a freer marketplace to meet public need rather than greater government intervention; (2) the extent to which they emphasize entrepreneurial opportunities rather than a government focus on preconceived needs along which entrepreneurs would be directed; (3) the extent to which they create incubator environments for small, new ventures rather than relocating existing ones; and (4) the extent to which the zones focus on business creation and growth rather than a more diversified social agenda.

 

April 02, 2007

Local Company Makes Good

Copyright Jack Mixner.     714 449 1040.     www.mixnerstrategy.com

Maybe ten years ago, I got to know Gary Wertz. Gary ended up running marketing for a local company, FlexFoot, acquired in 2000 by the Icelandic firm Ossur. Because of Gary, I have watched FlexFoot continue to grow.

Wired just published a long article on Oscar Pistorius, a runner poised to make the South African Olympic team, all the while running on Ossur/FlexFoot prosthetic legs. He is crossing over from stardom on the South African Paralympic team to their Olympic team.

Interesting quote about the ethics of all this: "If you think having carbon-fiber legs will make you faster sprinter, have the operation and we'll see you at the track."

Reference

McHugh, Josh. Blade Runner. Wired. March 2007. 136.

February 10, 2007

Inefficient Markets: Pharma Start-ups

Copyright Jack Mixner.     714 449 1040.     www.mixnerstrategy.com

All of us who understand the travails a start-up pharmaceutical or medical device company goes through are willing to cut the businesses some slack. Hundred million dollar investments are the norm, even before profits, or sales for that matter, kick in.

Is this all a tremendous waste of time - and money? The reason we all put up with is it is the assumption that the alternative, that of developing drugs in-house at the big pharmaceutical companies, is just as inefficient, or more so.

Two assumptions are a work here:

  • Little is better - less bureaucracy means faster development times
  • There is plenty of money available to startups from the venture capital process.

Maybe we're wrong. It might make sense to reevaluate the efficiency of large companies' research and development process (Pisano). Perhaps they are better than we think at identifying just when an investment in a new drug needs to end. A good portion of the venture capital sloshing around on the balance sheets of startup pharmaceutical companies may be ill-invested (Pollach).

While we rely on capitalistic markets to ultimately decide whether an investment is a good one or not, it appears that a re-examination of the pharmaceutical market might be in order, especially if the money you are about to invest is your own.

References

Pollack, Andrew. It's Alive! Meet One of Biotech's Zombies. New York Time. 10 February 2007. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/11/business/yourmoney/11xoma.html?ei=5094&en=5b835935e2350efa&hp=&ex=1171170000&adxnnl=1&partner=homepage&adxnnlx=1171144076-/NBOQr59NAwxcKfsl4xHbw

Pisano, Gary P. Science Business: The Promise, the Reality and the Future of Biotech. Harvard Business School Press. 2006.

February 07, 2007

Altruism - and Capitalism

Copyright Jack Mixner.     714 449 1040.     www.mixnerstrategy.com

For a while now, the US government has complained about the scarcity of vaccines to treat various illnesses. A plant was closed in the UK and Americans couldn't get flu shots last year. Lately, complaints surface occasionally about the problems to come if bird flu makes a major jump from wildlife to humans. Vaccines aren't necessarily profitable for companies to create. Plus, sterile manufacturing at large volume is apparently problematic. Thus the shortages.

Somebody is doing something about it, and we still hear complaints. Indonesia is starting to sell samples of the bird flu virus to Baxter Healthcare, in a newly formed non-exclusive arrangement. The World Health Organization is complaining (McNeil). 

What's wrong with this picture? The public good is colliding with capitalism. In the long run, we will have to see if it will work. In the short run, the WHO still has a role, that of ensuring that Baxter, and other for-profits that compete for the virus to create vaccines, have the capacity to protect against disaster.

In the long run, my suspicion is that we are in good hands. In the short run, let's keep an eye on those hands. We need to make sure enough manufacturers are supplying enough for all of us.

References

McNeil, Donald G., Jr. Indonesia May Sell, Not Give, Bird Flu Virus to Scientists. The New York Times. 7 February 2007. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/07/world/asia/07birdflu.html?_r=1&ref=health&oref=slogin

January 29, 2007

Micro-enterprise Loans - in Orange County?

Copyright Jack Mixner.     714 449 1040.     www.mixnerstrategy.com

Evidence suggests that economic growth in less developed regions of the world requires "economies of scale or scope or the use of new technologies capable of producing significant advances in overall productivity and incomes (Bhide, A16)." Micro loans in developing economies - without broad-based changes - aren't enough (even with Nobel Prize recognition including the recent award to Yunus this past year).

So where do micro-loans really work? Micro-loans might work better in impoverished areas in developed economies (Bhide, A16).

Orange County has problems - some severe - with unemployment and low incomes in various cities. Maybe a useful solution is a micro-loan program to stimulate growth in center city environs?

References

Bhide, Amar and Carl Schramm. Phelps's Prize. Wall Street Journal. 29 January 2007. A16.

January 23, 2007

Economic Development Friendly to Growth?

Copyright Jack Mixner.     714 449 1040.    www.mixnerstrategy.com

"For many lay people, economic development - by which we mean the analysis of the economic progress of nations - is what economics as a whole is designed to address. Indeed, what but to find the "nature and causes" of economic development was Adam Smith's purpose? For modern economists, however, the status of economic development is somewhat more uncomfortable: it has always been the maverick field, lurking somewhere in the background but not really considered "real economics" but rather an amalgam of sociology, anthropology, history, politics and, all-too- often, ideology (New School)."

Classical economic theory said intervention helped grow economies. Neoclassical economic theory, however, has discounted the possiblity that government planning, with attendant bureaucracies, spurs economic growth.

What does it mean for local economies like Orange County?

A few things continue to be clear. K-8 eductation is crucial. Mis-matches between supply of labor and employment trends, if pointed out early enough, may be reduced. There will be shortages of college educated workers and professionals with advanced training in the future (Orange County).

Intervention necessary from local government? Probably not. Spotlight on coming problems and mismatches? Good idea.

References

New School for Social Research. Economic Development. http://cepa.newschool.edu/het/schools/develop.htm.

Orange County Workforce Investment Board. Closing the Gaps Employment Demand and Workforce Training in Orange County's New Economy. http://www.ocwib.org/lmi/Docs/2000%20Workforce%20Assessment%20-%20

January 21, 2007

Oil, Tortillas and Green

Copyright Jack Mixner.    714 449 1040.     www.mixnerstrategy.com

The price of oil is falling. Certain sectors of the oil market require high oil prices to remain profitable. Low prices will send some companies, like low efficiency ethanol-from-corn producers, reeling (Zuckerman).

Green laws are requiring the ethanol content of gas to rise, raising the price of corn the feed stock for ethanol production.

High prices for corn raise the price of tortillas, a food staple in Mexico (Barclay). The government is importing corn to drive down corn prices.

This is a new, disorganized, and inefficient market. Politics are effecting the price of oil and corn. Relying on either of them for long term growth and profitability will require knowledge, efficiency - and luck.

References

Barclay, Eliza. Tortilla Trouble in Mexico. BusinessWeek. 29 January 2007. 10.

Zuckerman, Gregory and Ann Davis. Who is Hurt by Oil's Fall? Wall Street Journal. 19 January 2007. C1.

January 17, 2007

Top Strategic Initiatives

Copyright Jack Mixner.    714 449 1040.     www.mixnerstrategy.com

The top six strategic initiatives facing management in Orange County:

  1. Streamlining business processes
  2. Enhanced reporting and analytics
  3. New systems initiative
  4. Cost control and containment
  5. Internal Controls
  6. Alignment with operating units (Adibi, page 3).

This is supported by the liklihood (according to the survey) of increased capital spending and increased spending on technology.

Reference

Adibi, Esmael and Greg Edwards. Economic Pulse of Orange County. Second Annual Survey of Financial Executives. A. Gary Anderson Center for Economic Research. Chapman University. 12 January 2007.

January 15, 2007

Community Collaboration

Copyright Jack Mixner.     714 449 1040     www.mixnerstrategy.com

"Why do some communities sustain steady progress, while others emerge, then recede?

At first, we thought it might be technology. Then we looked at the presence of education and research institutions and wealth. Then we thought the silver bullet might be clusters: networked firms that competed and cooperated together.

The communities that are the most optimistic and ready for the new world practice 'collaborative advantage.' They enjoy tight relationships at the intersection of their business, government, education, and community sectors, which provide regional resiliency and a unique ability to set and achieve longer-term development goals (Henton, page xvi)."

"Stage I - Initiate. The Motivator and The Networker give a wake-up call and get friends to commit.

Stage II - Incubate. The Teacher and The Convener put the facts on the table and discipline for results.

Stage III - Implement. The Integrator and The Driver manage leadership transitions and press for measurement of outcomes.

Stage IV - Improve and Renew. The Mentor builds a platform for continuing collaboration, nurtures lasting culture and reaches out to involve newcomers (Henton, page 77)."

Accelerating the process is straightforward using a four step process:

  • Recognize leaders in the civic entrepreneurship process,
  • Network them together,
  • Educate on the process, accross generations and
  • Support collaborative initiatives and organizations (Henton, page 208).

Strategic Implication

A business can not succeed as an island. Besides customers, it must support the community. Henton et al present a model for leadership. The first step is to realize the need to get involved. The second is to show up - and lead.

References

Henton, Douglas, John Melville and Kimberly Walesh. Grassroots Leaders for a New Economy. Jossey-Bass. 1997. http://www.coecon.com/

January 06, 2007

Colonial Roots

Copyright Jack Mixner.     714 449 1040.     www.mixnerstrategy.com

One of the reasons I like Orange County so much is that the infrastructure - even though we complain about traffic - is so nice and new. I grew up in New Jersey in a house that fronted a colonial road. The road was narrow. It was buried about six feet below the surrounding terrain, the result of almost three hundred years of constant traffic. Since houses were built right to the edge of the road, widening and modernizing it would have cost a fortune. 

When I arrived in Orange County, it was a relief, if only for the seemingly wonderful local roads.

The point of all this? Donald Bren was just named Businessperson of the Year. Part of the reason so many of us like where we live is that a few people have taken the time to make sure things will stay fresh for a long time to come. Donald Bren is one of those wonderful people. Thanks. And best wishes. 

Reference

Mueller, Mark. Businessperson of the Year: Donald Bren. Orange County Business Journal. 1 January 2007. Page 1.

December 08, 2006

On Dis-banding the United Kingdom

Copyright Jack Mixner.     714 449 1040.     www.mixnerstrategy.com

Letts says that Scotland and England are considering dis-banding the United Kingdom formed in 1707.

Most interesting quote: "If Scotland and England go their separate ways the British would probably disappear as international diplomatic players."

I don't know about you, but that quote caused me to pause, for sure.

References

Letts, Quentin. Scot Free. Wall Street Journal (Opinion page). 8 December 2006. Page A16.

Updates on Medical Devices in Orange County

Copyright Jack Mixner.     714 449 1040.     www.mixnerstrategy.com

Two updates on medical device companies in Orange County:

Advanced Medical Optics, Inc. is recalling 3 million bottles of contact lens solutions because of contamination of their production line in China. They're not blaming some other product or people who use their solutions. They're just recalling everything and, a bonus, rebuilding the entire manufacturing lines used to manufacture the products.

Looks like the perfect course of action, especially in light of the recent disasters their competition has faced through less vigorous action in similar situations (Reed, page 1).

SpaceLabs Healthcare, Inc. is relocating to Seattle. An M&A transaction is causing the consolidation and move back to the parent's geographical location (Tolkoff, page 5).

Strategically, the move might make sense, especially if there are actual synergies when manufacturing facilites are merged. Companies buy other companies because they believe they add something special that makes the newly merged company more valuable. We'll see if this is the case this time.

References

Reed, Vita. Advanced Medical: Recall Strategy, Fallout. Orange County Business Journal. 4-10 December 2006. Page 1.

Tolkoff, Sarah. Irvine Device Maker Relocating to Seattle. Orange County Business Journal. 4-10 December 2006. Page 5.

December 05, 2006

New Trend on Wall Street

Copyright Jack Mixner.     714 449 1040.     www.mixnerstrategy.com

Investment banks are buying advisors of bankrupt businesses and out-of-court restructurings (Wall Street Gets Ready).

Easy credit has allowed companies to mask underperformance by re-scheduling debt. The median bond rating is BB, high grade junk. A decade ago it was BBB, an investment grade rating.

The investment bankers with their new consultancies are ready for a new round of defaults. Interesting times may be brewing, not all of them good.

Strategic Implications

Manage your debt. Get your house in order. Tough times may be around the corner.

References

Wall Street Gets Ready for Rain. http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2006/11/14/wall-street-gets-ready-for-rain/

 

December 04, 2006

On Medical Device Stagnation in OC

Copyright Jack Mixner.     714 449 1040.     www.mixnerstrategy.com

I have been working on economic development issues in Orange County since the early nineties. Back then, we assumed that the medical device industrial cluster in Orange County was one of the strongest in the world. If memory serves me well, employment in the cluster was about 14,000 people.

Today there are about 28,745 peopled employed in the biomedical cluster. That includes many employess in sub-clusters like pharmaceuticals and doctor's back offices.

Growth looks robust. What's the problem? Projected growth in the cluster through 2025 shows a 3.3% loss in employment (2025 Wake Up, page 16).

Strategic Implication

Orange County lost its strength in defense related spending during the nineties. It is at risk of losing its medical device strengths unless it takes action - now.

Traditional economic development strategies include stealing businesses from other locations and keeping the businesses we already have from moving to low expense manufacturing areas like Mexico or the Inland Empire in San Bernadino and Riverside Counties. They might work in this case. However, there is something better.

What to Do

Orange County should focus on building new companies in the medical device space. Innovation and increases in productivity in current companies both come from the excitement new companies cause in the marketplace. Traditionally, as companies came and went in an economy, productivity continued to increase. This increased overall GDP in the economy.

There is a better way to do this that is less wasteful. Grow companies and keep them solvent by focusing management talent on their needs early in the growth process (Hubbard, page 4.) Help them hire managerial talent earlier than they would normally expect to. Continue to train them as part of external - or internal - continuing education.

Reference

Orange County Workforce 2025: A Wake Up Call? http://www.ocwib.org/Docs/Workforce_2025.pdf

Hubbard, Glenn. The Productivity Riddle. strategy+business. Winter 2006. http://www.strategy-business.com/press/article/06402?gko=e1377-1876-20605692

August 09, 2006

On Strategy: On-shore or Off-shore - It Doesn't Matter

By Jack Mixner     714 449 1040     www.mixnerstrategy.com

Plastics contract manufacturers in the medical device business will manufacture your product in the US, in India or Taiwan. You get to decide. The price may vary as much as twenty five per cent one way or the other (Conkey, page B1).

Strategic Implication

If you have issues with manufacturing abroad, have it your way. If you want to save some money, manufacture in Taiwan or India. The supplier has set up to meet your needs.

This will help in branding if you need to use a Made in USA tag. Eventually, I believe that the price differential will fall and some of the manufacturing will return to the US. Logistics and "buried technology" based upon interaction between the engineer/designer and the manufacturer will make it a better bet.

Reference

Conkey, Christopher. Made in USA? Now, Customers Get to Choose. Wall Street Journal. 9 August 2006. Page B1.

August 07, 2006

On Economics: China as Competition

By Jack Mixner     714 449 1040     www.mixnerstrategy.com

Major investments in Chinese infrastructure by manufacturing companies are starting to decline. Honda, for instance, will complete its new manufacturing facilities on schedule and, when it needs more, move elsewhere. More and more of the Japanese companies are focusing high end manufactring in Japan (Batson, page A4).

What gives? Batson mentions one company that moved manufacturing operations from Taiwan in 1995 cutting costs fifty per cent. Its next move will be to Vietnam, again cutting costs - over China - by thirty-five per cent.

China remains a good place to manufacture things. Infrastructure is strong. The domestic market is huge. Its price advantage over other locations is declining, however.

Strategic Implications

China could move up-scale in its manufacturing content, beginning to compete on the world stage to manufacture higher-end goods. The next ten years will be crucial - and interesting to watch.

Middle market companies which need to manufacture in lower cost production locations will look beyond the Chinese market. High value-added manufacturing may return to local production.

Reference

Batson, Andrew. China Loses Some Allure as World's Factory. Wall Street Journal. 7 August 2006. Page A4.

 

July 13, 2006

On Strategy: Focus on Raising Money Before You Need It

By Jack Mixner

Last month, Wallace Walrod of the Orange County Business Council invited me to a presentation by the senior regional managers of the U. S. Army Corp of Engineers. They were talking about their focus on keeping infrastructure working in Orange County. They talked about the very successful work they did on Prado Dam out near Corona. Making it higher clearly saved us from significant flooding during storms last winter.

Before the presentation, we all went around the room introducing ourselves. I said I felt like a fish out of water because, to me, infrastructure means access to capital, not cement. Without capital, companies don't grow.

It turns out that access to capital in the U.S. is easier than other places like Europe.

Today's New York Times tells about a $9 million investment the Scottish national government made in a local biotech company with the intent of keeping it there. Only two months later, the company moved to New Jersey. While they left R&D in Scotland, they needed more money in order to grow. The US was the only place to get it. I have had other clients who moved from New Zealand and Korea for the same reasons.

Infrastructure is crucial for rapid growth in science and technology companies. It includes people, location - and money. While I don't really like the way companies are coming to the financial markets (the New Jersey company reverse merged with an existing, basically defunct company) because of the strength of the capital markets here, more companies will do the same thing.

Let's hope it's a win for everyone.

Strategic Implication

Capital formation is crucial to company growth. Rapid growth is some companies requires debt financing. In others, venture capital is required. Focus your efforts of securing capital when you don't neet it, not when you will fail without it.

Reference

Pollack, Andrew. U.S. Finance Pulls Biotech Across Seas. New York Time. 12 July 2006. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/12/business/worldbusiness/12place.html

June 27, 2006

On Economics: Mega Community Manifesto

By Jack Mixner

Business, NGOs, and Governments Work Together?

Businesses, non-governmental organizations or governmental agencies can no longer solve issues like globalization, health and environmental risks or inadequate infrastructure alone. Solutions demand the willingness and ability to work together at the intersection of the three groups – the Mega Community in Gerencser et al’s terminology. They use examples in Italy (securing availability of liquefied natural gas), AIDS in India, small business vitality in Harlem (a project led by Bill Clinton), and rain forest conservation in South America. The process seems particularly effective in communities where there is no clear leadership on issues the have long term effects.

The Orange County (California) Workforce Investment Board has a current project focusing on the nursing shortage. The WIB brought together management of hospitals, universities, and colleges all of whom had stakes in the problem. One of the outcomes is a new nursing school at the University of California Irvine. Everybody should be proud of the result.

How good is the OC solution?

Housing costs will eventually force nurses who work in Orange County to live elsewhere. Transportation costs, including travel time, will make that prohibitive. Even the new nursing programs will need short term (if not long term, as well) fill-in from nurses trained elsewhere. That backs into the national immigration discussions.

Suggestions from the Mega Community

  • The community must realize there is a problem and come together to solve it together with none of the different leaders demanding the leadership role.
  • Leaders must state what the problem is to a larger audience.
  • Negotiation begins in a cross-sector solution.
  • Experiment, learn, and monitor progress.

And in OC?

  • Applaud current results in nursing.
  • Address next phase in the larger discussions on, for instance, housing and infrastructure.
  • Lead discussions with all the communities.
  • Utilize a mega community for the solution.

Reference

Gerencser, Mark, Fernando Napolitano, and Reginald Van Lee. The Mega Community Manifesto. Public, private, and civil leaders should confront together the problems that none can solve alone. http://www.strategy-business.com/press/article/06208 . strategy+business. June 2006.

June 15, 2006

Why Bother With a Sustainable Strategy?

By Jack Mixner

Over the years, I have worked with many companies to create strategic plans. Very rarely did we address ecological concerns in our planning. The focus was mainly on some form of corporate financial success. Ricoh Electronics always comes to mind when we do consider such a strategy because of all the effort they have made into reducing scrap and emissions (while at the same time increasing profitability).

Now I have a resource that lays out all the environmental problems we all may face in the next years. Normally my attitude is that changes in the weather will take time. I have assumed that we have time to address the carbon buildups in the atmosphere and all will work out in the end.

Head-In-Sand Thinking?

Eugene Linden presents compelling evidence that climatic change will not occur over millenniums but rather over years or decades. He describes convincingly the reasons for the collapse of a Mayan civilization and the advance of the ice ages during the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries in Europe.

The book is interesting - read that gripping and scary, cannot put it down reading - for the way it lays out the problem. All of us need to consider the implications for our society.

Short term, there are all sorts of ways to strategize. Some of them are not necessarily sensible (Friends from the mid-west were talking about buying into an ethanol plant. I would wait a bit if I were them.) Longer term, sustainable strategies make good business sense - and good social sense.

Strategic Implication

Sustainable strategies will increase profitability and company valuation when incorporated in the overall corporate planning process. They make sense to consider.

References

Linden, Eugene. The Winds of Change Climate, Weather, and the Destruction of Civilizations. Simon & Schuster. 2006.

 

Ricoh Social Responsibility Report. 2003. http://www.rei.ricoh.com/download/environment/ricoh_social_responsibility_report_200310.pdf